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Opposition to Nuclear Energy Grows: Global Poll


25 November 2011 - Public opinion in many countries with nuclear power programmes has become more opposed to the technology since 2005, with most people believing conservation and renewable energy can meet future needs without nuclear power, a new multi-country poll for the BBC indicates.

Most of those polled in countries with operational nuclear plants are opposed to building new reactors, saying either that their country should “use the nuclear power stations we already have, but not build new ones” (39%), or that “nuclear power is dangerous and we should close down all operating nuclear plants as soon as possible” (30%).

But the poll, conducted by GlobeScan among 23,231 people in 23 countries between June and September this year, following the Fukushima crisis in Japan, also indicates that the UK and USA are bucking this trend and becoming less opposed to nuclear power than others.

The survey was fielded in 12 of the 31 countries that currently operate nuclear power plants. In these countries, opinion is split as to how extensively nuclear power should be used. Just over one in five respondents (22%) agrees that “nuclear power is relatively safe and an important source of electricity, and we should build more nuclear power plants.

”Eight of these countries were also polled in 2005 by GlobeScan about their views, and the results suggest that there has been a sharp increase in opposition to nuclear power in five of them. The proportion opposing the building of new nuclear power stations has grown to near-unanimity in Germany (from 73% to 90%), but also increased significantly in Mexico (51% to 82%), Japan (76% to 84%), France (66% to 83%), and Russia (from 61% to 80%).1

In contrast, while still a minority view, support for building new nuclear plants has grown in the UK (from 33% to 37%), is stable in the USA (40% to 39%), and is also high in China (42%) and Pakistan (39%). These countries thus emerge as the most pro-nuclear of the countries surveyed with current nuclear plants, by some distance. Among the countries polled that do not have active nuclear plants, support for building them is highest in Nigeria (41%), Ghana (33%), and Egypt (31%).

The poll also indicates that the belief that conservation and renewable energy can fill the gap left, if there is a move away from fossil fuels and nuclear energy, is now the consensus view. Respondents were asked to say whether they thought that their country “could almost entirely replace coal and nuclear energy within 20 years by becoming highly energy-efficient and focusing on generating energy from the sun and wind,” and more than seven in ten (71%) agree that it could.

The results are drawn from a survey of 23,231 adult citizens across 23 countries. It was conducted for BBC World Service by the international polling firm GlobeScan. GlobeScan coordinated fieldwork between July 3, 2011 and September 16, 2011. Within-country results are considered accurate within +/- 3.1 to 4.4 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

GlobeScan Chairman Doug Miller comments: “The lack of impact the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan has had on public views towards nuclear power in the UK and US is noteworthy. This contrasts with significantly increased opposition to nuclear new-build in most countries we’ve tracked since 2005."

"The biggest impact has been in Germany where the Merkel government’s new policy of shutting all its nuclear energy facilities is supported by 52 per cent of Germans in this poll.”

In total 23,231 citizens across 23 countries were interviewed face-to-face or by telephone between July 3, 2011 and September 16, 2011. One of the two questions was asked of half of samples. Polling was conducted for BBC World Service by the international polling firm GlobeScan and its research partners in each country. In eight of the 23 countries, the sample was limited to major urban areas. The margin of error per country ranges from +/- 3.1 to 4.4 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

For more details, please visit www.GlobeScan.com  

1Figures in this paragraph combine proportions of respondents who say “we should continue to operate existing nuclear plants, but not build new ones” and proportions of those who say that “nuclear power is dangerous and we should close down all operating nuclear plants as soon as possible.”


Participating Countries

country map

In Brazil, China, Ecuador, Egypt, Indonesia, Panama, the Philippines, and Turkey urban samples were used.

For detailed results, including country-by-country data for all key questions, please see the Key Findings page below.


Media Contacts

For media interviews with the participating pollsters, please contact:

Sam Mountford, Research Director
GlobeScan Incorporated, London
+44 20 7928 5368
(Mobile: +44 7854 132625)
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Oliver Martin, Director, Global Development
GlobeScan Incorporated, Toronto
+1 416 969 3073
(Mobile: +1 416 721 3544)
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About GlobeScan

GlobeScan Incorporated is an international opinion research consultancy. We provide global organisations with evidence-based insight to help them set strategy and shape their communications. Companies, multilateral institutions, governments, and NGOs trust GlobeScan for our unique expertise across reputation management, sustainability, and stakeholder relations. GlobeScan conducts research in over 90 countries, is ISO 9001-2008 quality certified and a signatory to the UN Global Compact.

Established in 1987, GlobeScan is an independent, management-owned company with offices in Toronto, London, and San Francisco. For more information, visit: www.globescan.com

About BBC World Service

The BBC World Service is an international multimedia broadcaster, delivering a wide range of language and regional services on radio, TV, online and via wireless handheld devices. It uses multiple platforms to reach its weekly audience of 166 million globally, including shortwave, AM, FM, digital satellite and cable channels. Its news sites include audio and video content and offer opportunities to join the global debate. BBC World Service offers its multilingual radio content to partner FM stations around the world and has numerous partnerships supplying content to news websites, mobile phones and other wireless handheld devices as well as TV channels. For more information, visit: www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice

Backgrounder: Region-by-Region Results

North America

In the US, a slight plurality (44%) of Americans is in favour of keeping existing nuclear power stations in use, but opposes building new ones. This proportion has surged since 2005, when slightly fewer than one in three (29%) felt this way. Over the same period of time, the percentage of Americans in favour of shutting down all operating nuclear plants as soon as possible because nuclear power is dangerous has dropped six points from 20 per cent to 14 per cent in 2011, less than half the average across the 12 countries surveyed that operate nuclear power plants (30%), and the second lowest proportion in the survey. Support for building new nuclear plants has remained stable in the US since 2005 (39% in 2011 vs 40% in 2005), and is almost twice the 12-country average (22%). This makes the US the second most pro-nuclear of the countries surveyed that operate nuclear plants, level with Pakistan and just behind China.

However, when asked to say whether they think their country could almost entirely replace coal and nuclear energy within 20 years by becoming highly energy-efficient and focusing on generating energy from the sun and wind, Americans are quite optimistic. Two thirds (67%) agree that conservation and renewable energy can indeed fill the gap left by fossil and nuclear energy, a proportion in line with the 23-country global average of all surveyed countries (71%).


Latin America

In Latin America, views as to how extensively nuclear power should be used for electricity generation are split between those countries that operate nuclear plants and those that do not. In Brazil—which operates a few nuclear plants and was surveyed for the first time in 2011—a plurality of 44 per cent of Brazilians says that their country should continue to use the nuclear power stations that are already in operation, but not build new ones. Thirty-five per cent say that nuclear power is dangerous and that all operating nuclear plants should be closed down as soon as possible—above the 12-country average (30%)—and only 16 per cent support the building of new nuclear plants—below the 12-country average (22%).

In Mexico, the second surveyed Latin American country currently using nuclear technology, opposition to building new nuclear reactors has grown. Almost four in ten Mexicans (39%) agree that their country should keep using existing nuclear power stations but not build new ones, compared with 28 per cent in 2005. More striking is the sharp increase in those completely opposed to the use of nuclear energy. Forty-three per cent think that nuclear power is dangerous and that all operating nuclear plants should be closed down as soon as possible, while only 23 per cent felt this way in 2005. This proportion is significantly higher than the 30 per cent average in the 12 surveyed countries that operate nuclear power plants, and places Mexico among the surveyed countries most opposed to nuclear energy. Consistent with this growing opposition, support for building new nuclear plants has fallen dramatically over the same period: fewer than one in five (18%) supports the building of new nuclear reactors in 2011, not much more than half the 2005 level (32%).

In the Latin American countries that do not operate nuclear plants, opposition to the technology tends to be even more marked. In Chile—where the construction of one nuclear plant is planned—and in Ecuador, majorities of, respectively, 55 and 53 per cent (highest and third-highest proportions in the survey) think that nuclear energy is dangerous and should not be used. In Panama and in Peru, pluralities of 38 and 30 per cent, respectively, think nuclear power generation should be abandoned in countries that have active plants.

The relative opposition to nuclear power among Latin Americans overall is matched by a generally strong belief that their country will be able to replace coal and nuclear energy almost entirely within 20 years by becoming highly energy-efficient and focusing on renewable energy. Across the Latin American countries surveyed, almost three quarters (74%) agree with this statement, a proportion similar to the average of all 23 countries in the poll (71%), with Panamanians and Chileans being the most optimistic (84% and 83% respectively).


Europe

In Europe, a majority of the countries surveyed have negative views towards the use of nuclear energy to generate electricity. Spain and Germany are the most opposed to nuclear power, with majorities that think it is dangerous and want to see all nuclear plants closed as soon as possible (55% in Spain, the highest proportion in the survey, alongside Chile; 52% in Germany). Both figures are well above the 30 per cent average in the 12 countries surveyed that operate nuclear power plants. In Germany, the proportion of those opposed to any further use of nuclear energy has doubled since 2005, when only 26 per cent wanted to see an immediate end to Germany’s nuclear power programme.

A similar dramatic shift in perceptions has taken place in Russia, where 43 per cent of respondents now say that nuclear plants should be closed as soon as possible, more than twice the proportion recorded in 2005 (20%). In 2011, only 9 per cent of Russians (down from 22% in 2005), 8 per cent of Spaniards, and 7 per cent of Germans (down from 22% in 2005) still think that nuclear energy is safe and back the construction of new plants—compared with the 22 per cent average in the 12 countries that operate nuclear plants.

In France and in the UK, attitudes are characterised more by opposition to building new reactors than by outright opposition to the use of atomic energy. Fifty-eight per cent of French (up 8 points since 2005) agree that their country should keep using existing nuclear power stations, but should not build new ones. This is the highest proportion in the whole survey, and significantly higher than the average of the 12 countries with active nuclear power stations (39%). In the UK, a plurality of 44 per cent holds similar views, but the British overall are more favourable towards the use of nuclear energy to generate electricity than any other European country surveyed. The proportion of respondents who are in favour of building new nuclear infrastructure has increased slightly since 2005 (37%, up 4 points), and is the fifth highest among all countries surveyed. The UK is also the only tracking country where this proportion has increased since 2005. Moreover, the proportion of Britons who want existing nuclear plants to be shut down because they think nuclear energy is dangerous has dropped eight points since 2005 (15%, down from 23%), and is only half the average across the 12 countries operating nuclear plants (30%).

In Turkey, the only European country surveyed that does not operate a nuclear power plant (but where a nuclear programme is planned), respondents hold negative views. A plurality of 41 per cent of Turks thinks that nuclear energy is dangerous and should not be used.

In all of the European countries surveyed, a majority of respondents believes that their country will be able to almost entirely replace coal and nuclear energy within 20 years by becoming highly energy-efficient and focusing on renewable energy like the sun and wind. However, optimism varies from one country to another. Spanish respondents are the most optimistic, with 92 per cent believing this. This is the highest proportion among all 23 countries surveyed, well above the 71 per cent global average—a position that echoes their strong opposition to the use of nuclear energy. European respondents from other countries are relatively less upbeat about the potential for renewables and conservation to fill the gap left by coal and nuclear energy, and are among the least optimistic countries in the survey (France at 67%, Turkey at 65%, Germany at 62%, and Russia at 53%).


Africa

In Africa, where no surveyed country operates a nuclear plant, opinions vary. Nigerians and Ghanaians have favourable views towards the use of nuclear energy, as shown by the pluralities who think it is safe enough, and a sufficiently important potential source of electricity, to justify the construction of new plants. Forty-one per cent of Nigerians feel this way (the second-highest percentage after China), and 33 per cent of Ghanaians. In Ghana, however, a substantial proportion of respondents do not have any clear stance on the issue (36%).

In Kenya, overall views are negative, with a plurality of 39 per cent who thinks that nuclear energy is dangerous and should not be used. Thirty-six per cent of Egyptians hold the same view. However, in Egypt—which has a framework in place to build nuclear plants—support for building new plants is quite high, at 31 per cent (the third-highest proportion among countries that do not have active nuclear plants).

Among African respondents, the belief that conservation and renewable energy could replace fossil and nuclear fuels in their country in the next 20 years is quite strong. Egyptians and Nigerians are the most optimistic, with 90 and 86 per cent respectively agreeing with the statement (the second and third highest proportions in the survey). Almost eight in ten (78%) share this belief in Kenya, and 73 per cent in Ghana.


Asia

In Asia, perceptions as to how extensively nuclear power should be used for electricity generation differ between countries. Among countries that do have active nuclear plants, China and Pakistan have the most favourable views towards nuclear energy. Pluralities of 42 and 39 per cent of Chinese and Pakistanis respectively think nuclear power is safe enough and important enough to justify the construction of new plants—almost twice the average of the 12 countries operating nuclear plants (22%). Not only does China have the highest proportion of people in favour of the construction of new plants, but also the lowest percentage of those who say nuclear energy is dangerous and that all plants should be closed as soon as possible (13%, as opposed to 30% in the 12-country average).

In Japan, people’s perceptions suggest an opposition to building new nuclear plants more than a complete rejection of the use of nuclear energy, mirroring attitudes in France. Fifty-seven per cent of Japanese agree that their country should keep using existing nuclear power stations but not build new ones. This is the second-highest proportion in the survey, and is significantly higher than the 12-country average (39%). However, following the Fukushima accident, the proportion of those opposed to any further use of nuclear power has almost doubled since 2005 (27%, up from 15%), and is in line with the 12-country average (30%). Over the same time, the proportion of Japanese in favour of building new plants because nuclear energy is considered safe has fallen considerably. Only 6 per cent hold this view in 2011 (tied with Ecuador as the second-lowest percentage in the survey), compared to 21 per cent in 2005.

In India, opinion is now divided between phasing out of nuclear energy and building more plants. Twenty-three per cent of respondents favour building new nuclear infrastructure—this represents a 10-point drop since 2005. At the same time, 21 per cent think nuclear energy is dangerous and want to see all plants closed. India is the only country with active nuclear plants to be clearly divided between these two options. However, nearly 40 per cent of Indians have no opinion as to how extensively nuclear power should be used for electricity generation, the highest proportion in the survey.

In Indonesia, where a nuclear programme is planned, a plurality of 39 per cent thinks that nuclear power generation should continue in countries with active plants, but are against building new nuclear reactors. Since 2005, anti-nuclear sentiment has grown among Indonesians: 34 per cent are completely opposed to the use of nuclear energy because they say it is too dangerous (up 6 points), and the proportion of those who think it is safe has fallen considerably (12%, down from 33% in 2005). Filipinos are the most opposed to nuclear energy among Asian countries, with a plurality of 41 per cent who say plants currently operated should be closed down as soon as possible.

When asked to say whether they think that their country could almost entirely replace coal and nuclear energy within 20 years by becoming highly energy-efficient and focusing on generating energy from the sun and wind, Filipinos and Indonesians are the most optimistic countries in Asia. Respectively, 86 and 84 per cent agree with the statement, significantly higher than the 23-country global average (71%). Asian countries that do operate nuclear plants are less optimistic, but still upbeat. Slightly less than seven in ten (69%) hold these views in China, and only 58 and 53 per cent in India and Pakistan. Interestingly, Japanese are the most pessimistic, and do not believe that conservation behaviours and renewable energy can meet future needs if there was a drastic move away from fossil and nuclear energy. It is the only country polled where a majority disagrees with this statement (59%).

Methodology

In total 23,231 citizens in Brazil, Chile, China, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Ghana, India, Indonesia, Japan, Kenya, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, the Philippines, Russia, Spain, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States were interviewed face-to-face or by telephone between July 3, 2011 and September 16, 2011. Question M7B was asked of half of samples. Polling was conducted for BBC World Service by GlobeScan and its research partners in each country.

In Brazil, China, Ecuador, Egypt, Indonesia, Panama, the Philippines, and Turkey urban samples were used. The margin of error per country ranges from +/- 3.1 to 4.4 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

 

CountrySample Size (unweighted)Field datesSample frameSurvey methodologyType of sample
Brazil 806 July 26 – August 15, 2011 18–69 Telephone Urban1
Chile 1200 August 18–29, 2011 18+ Face-to-face National
China 1000 July 13–31, 2011 18+ Telephone Urban2
Ecuador 497 August 27 – September 16, 2011 18+ Face-to-face Urban3
Egypt 1005 July 16–29, 2011 18+ Face-to-face Urban4
France 503 August 16–18, 2011 15+ Telephone National
Germany 1013 July 8–27, 2011 16–70 Telephone National
Ghana 1037 July 25 – August 20, 2011 18+ Face-to-face National
India 1254 July 15–29, 2011 18+ Face-to-face National
Indonesia 1000 July 3 – August 25, 2011 18+ Face-to-face Urban5
Japan 1673 September 3–4, 2011 20+ Face-to-face National
Kenya 816 August 5 – September 1, 2011 18+ Face-to-face National
Mexico 1000 July 23–28, 2011 18+ Face-to-face National
Nigeria 755 August 2–9, 2011 18–65 Face-to-face National
Pakistan 2400 July 18 – August 8, 2011 18+ Face-to-face National
Panama 750 August 9–22, 2011 18+ Telephone Urban6
Peru 1215 July 15–20, 2011 18–70 Face-to-face National
Philippines 800 July 23 – August 8, 2011 18+ Face-to-face Urban7
Russia 1006 July 22 – August 10, 2011 18+ Face-to-face National
Spain 501 September 1–10, 2011 18+ Telephone National
Turkey 1000 July 5–18, 2011 15+ Face-to-face Urban8
United Kingdom 1000 July 6 – August 23, 2011 18+ Telephone National
USA 1000 July 8 – August 18, 2011 18+ Telephone National
  1. In Brazil the survey was conducted in Belo Horizonte, Brasilia, Curitiba, Goiânia, Porto Alegre, Recife, Rio de Janeiro, Salvador, and São Paulo, representing 18 per cent of the national population.
  2. In China the survey was conducted in Beijing, Beiliu, Chengdu, Dujiangyan, Fenyang, Fuyang, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Manzhouli, Quanzhou, Qujing, Shanghai, Shenyang, Shuangcheng, Wuhan, Xi'an, Xining, and Zhengzhou, representing 45 per cent of the national adult population.
  3. In Ecuador the survey was conducted in Cuenca, Guayaquil and Quito, representing 52 per cent of the urban population.
  4. In Egypt the survey was conducted in Alexandria, Cairo, Giza, and Shubra El-Kheima, representing 24 per cent of the national population.
  5. In Indonesia the survey was conducted in Bandung, Jakarta, Makassar, Medan, and Surabaya, representing 27 per cent of the national adult population.
  6. In Panama the survey was conducted in Panamá, Chiriquí, Colón, Coclé, Veraguas, Herrera, Bocas del Toro and Los Santos, representing 70 per cent of the adult population.
  7. In the Philippines the survey was conducted in the National Capital Region, representing 27 per cent of the urban adult population.
  8. In Turkey the survey was conducted in Adana, Ankara, Antalya, Bursa, Diyarbakir, Erzurum, Istanbul, Izmir, Konya, Samsun, and Zonguldak, representing 56 per cent of the national adult population.

Research Partners

CountryResearch InstituteLocationContact
Brazil Market Analysis Florianópolis Fabián Echegaray This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
+55 48 3364 0000
Chile Mori Chile Santiago Marta Lagos
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+56 2334 4544
China GlobeScan Toronto Oliver Martin
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+1 416 969 3073
Ecuador Propraxis / Sigma Dos Quito Carlos Moreno
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+593 7 2888519
Egypt Attitude Market Research Cairo Mohamed Al Gendy
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+202 22711262
France Efficience 3 Paris and Rheims Christian de Thieulloy
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+33 1 4316 5442
Germany Ri*QUESTA GmbH Teningen Bernhard Rieder
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+49 7641 93 43 36
Ghana Business Interactive Consulting Limited Accra Razaaque Animashaun
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+233 302 783140 / +233 302 782892
India Team C Voter Noida Yashwant Deshmukh
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+91 120 4175200 (ext. 223)
Indonesia DEKA Marketing Research Jakarta Irma Malibari
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+62 21 723 6901
Japan The Yomiuri Shimbun Tokyo Ikuko Higuchi
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+81 3 3217 1963
Kenya Research Path Associates Ltd. Nairobi Jeremy Mwololo
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+254 020 2734770
Mexico Parametria Mexico City Francisco Abundis
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+52 55 2614 0089
Nigeria Millward Brown Lagos Michael Umogun
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+234 802 311 7969
Pakistan Gallup Pakistan Islamabad Ijaz Shafi Gilani
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+92 51 2655630
Panama Dichter & Neira Panama City Gabriel Neira
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+ 507 236 4000
Peru Datum Lima Urpi Torrado
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+511 215 0600
Philippines M&S-Sigma Dos Philippines, Inc. Makati City Teodora Marasigan
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+63 2 8172780
Russia CESSI Institute for Comparative Social Research Moscow Vladimir Andreenkov
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+7 495 650 55 18
Spain Sigma Dos Int. Madrid Gines Garrido
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+34 91 360 0474
Turkey Yöntem Research Consultancy Ltd. Istanbul Bülent Gündoğmuş
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+90 212 278 1219
United Kingdom Populus Data Solutions London Patrick Diamond
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+44 207 553 4148
USA Populus Data Solutions London Patrick Diamond
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+44 207 553 4148

Question Wording

Question Wording

M6t.

Which statement best reflects your view of the generation of electricity using nuclear reactors?
READ AND ROTATE. ONE CODE ONLY

  • 01 We should use the nuclear power plants that we already have, but we should not build new ones.
  • 02 Nuclear power is dangerous and we should close down all operating nuclear power plants as soon as possible.
  • 03 Nuclear power is relatively safe and an important source of electricity, and we should build new nuclear power plants.
  • VOLUNTEERED
  • 96 None of the above
  • 97 Other (do not specify)
  • 99 Don’t Know / Not applicable
M7B.

To what extent do you agree or disagree that, by becoming highly energy efficient and focusing on generating energy from the sun and wind, [COUNTRY] could almost entirely replace coal and nuclear energy within 20 years?
READ OUT AND CODE ONE ONLY

  • 01 Strongly agree
  • 02 Somewhat agree
  • 03 Somewhat disagree
  • 04 Strongly disagree
  • VOLUNTEERED
  • 99 Don’t Know / Not applicable

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