Global Poll Shows Public Support for Taliban Negotiations

Backgrounder: Region-by-Region Results

North America
American and Canadian respondents’ views on the strategy that NATO should adopt in Afghanistan are contrasting. While a plurality of Americans surveyed favours the option of continuing the fighting to defeat the Taliban militarily—42%, the highest percentage in the survey and well above the 16% global average, only one Canadian in four polled agrees with this strategy. Canadians prefer the solution of a negotiated peace that could include the Taliban in the Afghan government. This is favoured by 39 per cent of them—in line with the global average (40%)—while only 29 per cent of Americans lean this way. Almost one in three Canadians surveyed (28%) favours an immediate withdrawal of NATO’s troops, somewhat more than the proportion in the US (23%).
Latin America
Respondents from all Latin American countries surveyed strongly think the best strategy for NATO to adopt in Afghanistan is to negotiate with the Taliban. A majority of Brazilians polled think this (51%), and strong pluralities in Peru (46%) and Mexico (45%) also favour this option. The strategy of an immediate withdrawal is also more popular in Mexico than in most countries surveyed (38%, above the global average). Latin Americans in general are not keen for NATO to pursue its military operation to defeat the Taliban. This strategy is supported by only 6 per cent of Peruvians polled (second lowest percentage in the survey) and 12 per cent in Mexico. Seventeen per cent of Brazilians in the survey agree with this option, in line with the global average (16%).
Europe
In Europe, the strategy of continuing the military effort is supported by relatively small proportions of respondents, except in Spain. This is even more striking as all European countries surveyed except Russia are part of NATO. Germans, Russians, and Turks favour the option of an immediate withdrawal of NATO’s troops. This is particularly acute in Germany, where close to a majority of those polled agrees military withdrawal is the best option for NATO (47%, tied with Pakistan for the highest percentage in the survey). The rest of the European countries surveyed would prefer a strategy involving negotiations with the Taliban that could include them in an Afghan government. More than 40 per cent of respondents lean this way in France, Portugal, Italy, and the UK, but only 37 per cent do so in Spain, where a higher proportion of those polled still supports the military effort as a strategy to follow (28%, compared to 16% globally—the third highest percentage in the survey).
Africa
Most of the African countries surveyed prefer the solution of negotiations with the Taliban as the best strategy for NATO to follow in Afghanistan. The proportions of respondents leaning this way vary from 39 per cent in Ghana to 43 per cent in South Africa and Nigeria, to 46 per cent in Kenya. Egyptians are divided between the options of immediately withdrawing (34%, higher than the global average of 29%) and negotiating with the Taliban (32%, below the global average). Very few Africans support the strategy of continuing the military efforts to defeat the Taliban, with proportions below or in line with the 16% global average in each country.
Asia
In Asia, views regarding the best option to follow for NATO in Afghanistan are contrasting. Pakistani respondents, in closest proximity to the Afghan conflict, favour immediate withdrawal of NATO’s troops, in the same proportion as do the Germans (47%). Indonesian respondents also support the option of a withdrawal in quite large numbers (38%, above the 29% global average) but are somewhat more in favour of starting negotiations with the Taliban (43%). So are the Filipinos and the Chinese, who have the strongest proportions leaning this way (74% and 53%, respectively). Australia is the only country to be divided between negotiating a peace agreement with the Taliban that could include them in a government (35%) and continuing the military effort to defeat the Taliban (32%). This makes Australia the closest country in attitudinal terms to the Americans. Indian respondents do not have any clear preference on the topic. They are the only respondents to be evenly split between the three options and with very high proportions without any opinion (47%).

Methodology

In total 24,284 citizens in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Egypt, France, Germany, Ghana, India, Indonesia, Italy, Kenya, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Peru, the Philippines, Portugal, Russia, South Africa, Spain, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the USA were interviewed face-to-face or by telephone between December 2, 2010 and February 4, 2011. Polling was conducted for BBC World Service by GlobeScan and its research partners in each country.
In Brazil, China, Egypt, Indonesia, Mexico, the Philippines, Portugal, and Turkey urban samples were used. The margin of error per country ranges from +/- 2.0 to 4.9 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

¹ In Brazil the survey was conducted in Belo Horizonte, Brasilia, Curitiba, Goiânia, Porto Alegre, Recife, Rio de Janeiro, Salvador, and São Paulo, representing 18 per cent of the national population.
² In China the survey was conducted in Beijing, Beiliu, Chengdu, Dujiangyan, Fenyang, Fuyang, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Manzhouli, Quanzhou, Qujing, Shanghai, Shenyang, Shuangcheng, Wuhan, Xi’an, Xining, and Zhengzhou, representing 45 per cent of the national adult population.
³ In Egypt the survey was conducted in Alexandria, Cairo, Giza, and Shubra El-Kheima, representing 24 per cent of the national population.
⁴ In Indonesia the survey was conducted in Bandung, Jakarta, Makassar, Medan, and Surabaya, representing 27 per cent of the national adult population.
⁵ In Mexico the survey was conducted in Baja California, Chihuahua, Guanajuato, Guerrero, Hidalgo, Jalisco, Mexico City, Michoacán, Morelos, Nuevo León, Oaxaca, Puebla, Sonora, Tamaulipas, Veracruz, and Yucatán, representing 40 per cent of the national adult population and 80 per cent of the residential telephone landlines.
⁶ In the Philippines the survey was conducted in the National Capital Region, representing 27 per cent of the urban adult population.
⁷ In Portugal the survey was conducted in Almada, Amadora, Beja, Braga, Castelo Branco, Évora, Faro, Guarda, Leiria, Lisbon, Loures, Porto, Santarém, Setúbal, Vila Nova de Famalicão, Vila Nova de Gaia, and Viseu, representing 25 per cent of the national adult population.
⁸ In Turkey the survey was conducted in Adana, Ankara, Antalya, Bursa, Diyarbakir, Erzurum, Istanbul, Izmir, Konya, Samsun, and Zonguldak, representing 56 per cent of the national adult population.

Research Partners

Question Wording