Rich Nations Gloomy, Emerging Economies Upbeat: Global Consumer Confidence Poll

Backgrounder: Region-by-Region Results

North America
As in 2010, a clear split exists between Canada and the US over perceived economic prospects during the next 12 months. Canadians are much more upbeat than Americans, and their views have changed little since last year. Almost three in ten (28%) of them think their country will experience “good” or “mostly good” times over the next year, while 23 per cent are pessimistic. This contrasts with the bleak economic sentiment in the US, where barely one in six (16%) believes the economic outlook will be positive in the year ahead. Over twice as many are negative: two out of five (38%) predict “bad” or “mostly bad” times over the next year. Nonetheless, the proportion of pessimistic respondents in the USA has dropped six points since 2010 (from 44%).
Looking at the longer term, respondents from both Canada and the US are more confident, but the contrast between the two countries is still apparent. Over the next five years, 24 per cent of Americans expect “continuous” or “mostly” good times (up 7 points since 2010), while a similar proportion (27%) leans the opposite way and expects “continuous” or “mostly” bad times. In Canada, optimists (35%, up 9 points since 2010) are almost three times more numerous than those with negative views (12%).
Latin America
Among Latin American countries surveyed, economic sentiment is positive overall, although diverse at a country level. The regional average shows almost four in ten (38%) predict good business conditions during the next 12 months, and only 17 per cent predict difficult times. Panamanians and Brazilians are the most optimistic, with respective majorities of 52 and 51 per cent who say they expect “good” or “mostly good” times in the next 12 months, well above the regional average. However, Brazilians are somewhat less upbeat than last year, when 57 per cent of them were optimistic.
Peruvians are also very positive, with 45 per cent of them saying they expect good business conditions in the year ahead, and only 5 per cent holding the opposite view (the second lowest proportion among all countries surveyed). And in contrast with Brazilians, respondents from Peru have become much more optimistic since 2010, when only 27 per cent had positive feelings about the next year, while 26 per cent held negative views. In Mexico, although the proportion of Mexicans who think good business conditions will prevail in their country during the next year is slightly below the regional average (34% vs 38%), three times as many have positive views as in 2010 (11%), which demonstrates a sharp increase of optimism among Mexicans.
The situation is much less buoyant in the other OECD country in the region, Chile, where only 22 per cent of Chileans are positive about the economic outlook over the next year—the lowest percentage in the region. Ecuadorians are rather split, with one in four saying they expect “good” or “mostly good” times in the next 12 months, and another quarter (24%) saying the opposite. Half expect equally good and bad times.
The picture is very similar when we look at the longer term. Brazilians are the most optimistic, with 60 per cent who say they expect “continuous” or “mostly” good times for business conditions over the next five years—well above the regional average of 41 per cent. Panamanians and Peruvians follow with 50 per cent, and in Peru, the proportion of optimists has surged since 2010 (29%). Chileans remain the least optimistic, with just over one in five (21%) believing the economic outlook for the five years to come will be positive.
Europe
In Europe, Britons and French are by far the least optimistic, with only 8 and 9 per cent confident that business conditions in the next 12 months will be good. These figures are the second and third lowest among all countries surveyed, and have remained stable since 2010 (7% and 8%, respectively). In Spain, the proportion of optimists is significantly greater (22%) but still remains at quite a low level—and is also stable compared to 2010. But Spain is one of three European countries where majorities expect bad economic times in the coming year (52% in Spain and up 14 points since 2010, 52% in the UK, and 51% France).
In Germany, the population has become much more upbeat since 2010. Thirty-six per cent of Germans said they expect “good” or “mostly good” times during the next year, compared with 22 per cent in 2010. This makes the Germans the second most optimistic people among the countries surveyed in Europe, after the Turks, 39 per cent of whom hold positive views about economic prospects in their country in the year ahead. As in Germany, economic sentiment in Turkey has improved greatly since 2010, when just 23 per cent felt positive about their economic perspectives.
In Russia, pessimism has gained ground since 2010, with 22 per cent now saying they expect bad economic times compared to only 15 per cent last year. The proportion of optimists remains quite stable, at 24 per cent.
When focusing on the longer term, the Turks and Germans also appear as the most optimistic Europeans, with respectively 40 and 33 per cent saying they expect their country’s economy to fare well over the next five years. This is significantly higher than the 2010 figures (21% in Turkey and 20% in Germany). As in Germany, a third of Spaniards have positive views, but far fewer are optimistic compared to 2010 (52%). In France and the UK, the economic sentiment of the population for the five years to come remains very gloomy, although it has improved somewhat compared to 2010 (respectively 20% and 17% of optimists, up 6 and 5 points).
Africa
The economic sentiment in Africa is the most positive overall compared to other regions. On average, 59 per cent of African respondents predict that economic conditions during the next 12 months will be “good” or “mostly good,” while only 14 per cent say they expect bad economic times. This optimistic sentiment is found consistently in each of the four African countries surveyed.
Nigeria is the country with by far the highest proportion of optimists among all countries surveyed (72%), and the percentage has increased by 11 points since 2010. Respondents from the three other African countries surveyed also have majorities who think their country will experience “good” or “mostly good” times in the year ahead, above the proportions in any other surveyed country: 57 per cent in Egypt, 55 per cent in Kenya, and 53 per cent in Ghana. Like Nigerians, Kenyans and Ghanaians are much more upbeat about economic prospects in their country compared to 2010 (24% more optimists in Kenya, 13% more in Ghana).
The longer-term picture also shows buoyant sentiment among Africans, especially in Egypt and Nigeria. Egyptians are the most positive of all the countries surveyed about business conditions over the next five years, with almost three in four (74%) saying they anticipate “continuous” or “mostly” good economic conditions. They are closely followed by Nigerians (73%, up 10 points since 2010). Ghana follows with 60 per cent (up 14 points since 2010). Kenyans are less upbeat, although a near majority predict good business conditions (48%), and that percentage has increased by 12 points since 2010.
Asia
In Asia, a clear division between developing and richer economies is apparent. The two economic giants, China and India, are the most upbeat among the Asian countries surveyed, with over half of respondents (51%) thinking good business conditions will prevail in their country during the next year. However, economic sentiment in India is not as positive as last year, with the proportion of optimists decreasing by 11 points, while it remains stable in China. There are also over twice as many Indians who are pessimistic (24%) as in China (11%).
The perspectives on the short-term economic outlook are also largely positive in two other booming economies of the region, Indonesia and the Philippines. Forty-eight per cent of Indonesians say they are hopeful that business conditions in their country will be “good” or “mostly good” in the year ahead (up 14 points since 2010), and 46 per cent of Filipinos lean the same way. In both countries, only ten per cent are pessimistic. In Pakistan, however, economic sentiment is not good. Thirty per cent of Pakistanis have positive views, an increase of 12 points since 2010, but optimists are still outnumbered by pessimists (36%).
In the two richest economies of the region—members of the OECD—the picture is radically different. In Japan in particular, only 5 per cent of respondents say they expect good times for the Japanese economy (down 4 points from 9% in 2010), and fully 60 per cent hold the opposite view. These figures are the most negative among all countries surveyed, and demonstrate the very high level of pessimism in Japanese society. Consumer confidence is nearly as bad in Australia, with just over 13 per cent predicting good business conditions in their country over the coming year, a proportion that has dropped nine points since 2010.
Looking at the longer term, the Chinese appear as the most confident in the capacity of their economy to fare well. More than six in ten (62%) expect “continuous” or “mostly” good times over the next five years, the third highest percentage globally after Egypt and Nigeria. Indonesia and the Philippines follow, both with 54 per cent optimists—this represents a 16-point increase since 2010 in the case of Indonesia, while the proportion in the Philippines remains stable. Long-term economic perspectives for India are also considered positive by a majority of Indians, although economic confidence has dropped since 2010 (50%, down 7 points). In neighbouring Pakistan, long-term optimism has gained some ground, from 21 per cent in 2010 up to 32 per cent this year.
Even when contemplating long-term economic perspectives, the Japanese are not optimistic. With just 14 per cent expecting good times over the next five years, Japan is the least optimistic of all participating countries.

Methodology

In total 25,438 citizens in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Ghana, India, Indonesia, Japan, Kenya, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, the Philippines, Russia, Spain, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States were interviewed face-to-face or by telephone between July 3, 2011 and September 16, 2011. Polling was conducted for BBC World Service by GlobeScan and its research partners in each country.
In Brazil, China, Ecuador, Egypt, Indonesia, Panama, the Philippines, and Turkey urban samples were used. The margin of error per country ranges from +/- 2.0 to 4.4 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

1. In Brazil the survey was conducted in Belo Horizonte, Brasilia, Curitiba, Goiânia, Porto Alegre, Recife, Rio de Janeiro, Salvador, and São Paulo, representing 18 per cent of the national population.
2. In China the survey was conducted in Beijing, Beiliu, Chengdu, Dujiangyan, Fenyang, Fuyang, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Manzhouli, Quanzhou, Qujing, Shanghai, Shenyang, Shuangcheng, Wuhan, Xi’an, Xining, and Zhengzhou, representing 45 per cent of the national adult population.
3. In Ecuador the survey was conducted in Cuenca, Guayaquil and Quito, representing 52 per cent of the urban population.
4. In Egypt the survey was conducted in Alexandria, Cairo, Giza, and Shubra El-Kheima, representing 24 per cent of the national population.
5. In Indonesia the survey was conducted in Bandung, Jakarta, Makassar, Medan, and Surabaya, representing 27 per cent of the national adult population.
6. In Panama the survey was conducted in Panamá, Chiriquí, Colón, Coclé, Veraguas, Herrera, Bocas del Toro and Los Santos, representing 70 per cent of the adult population.
7. In the Philippines the survey was conducted in the National Capital Region, representing 27 per cent of the urban adult population.
8. In Turkey the survey was conducted in Adana, Ankara, Antalya, Bursa, Diyarbakir, Erzurum, Istanbul, Izmir, Konya, Samsun, and Zonguldak, representing 56 per cent of the national adult population.

Research Partners

Question Wording