Rising Concern about China’s Increasing Power: Global Poll

Backgrounder: Region-by-Region Results

North America
A majority of North Americans now sees China’s increasing economic power negatively, with both Canadian and American views shifting significantly since 2005. In 2005, a majority of Canadians considered the growing economic influence of China as positive (53%) and a strong plurality of Americans (46%) leaned the same way. In 2011, Canadians lean largely negative (55%) and only 34 per cent feel the Chinese economic influence is positive. Americans also lean negative now (40% positive vs. 54% negative), after being divided in 2005 (46% vs. 45%).
Pluralities in both the US and Canada also think that the way China handles trade with other countries is unfair (45% and 39%, respectively). In comparison, North American views on fairness of the EU as a trade partner are diametrically opposed and are largely positive overall.
However, Canadians give a similar score to the US and China regarding their fairness in dealing with trading partners (respectively 4.80 and 4.72 on average, on a 0–10 scale). Both Canadians and Americans share the view that their country’s economic relations with China are likely to become more important ten years from now. On a 0–10 scale, the average importance score given by Canadians to trade with the Chinese in ten years is 7.71 (vs. 7.10 now) which would make China almost as important an economic partner as the neighbouring US whose importance as a trade partner will decrease according to Canadians (average score down from 8.18 to 7.79). Americans also think that the importance of economic relations with China will increase over the next decade (average score up from 7.77 to 7.97), but the EU is expected to rank slightly ahead of China in terms of importance in ten years (average score of 8.05).
Wariness about Chinese economic global leadership goes together with a much more negative view of seeing China becoming more powerful militarily. Around eight in ten North Americans see this possibility in negative terms (79% in the US, 82% in Canada)—a much bigger proportion than the 55 per cent global average—and the trend has worsened since 2005, particularly in Canada where only 70 per cent felt this way in 2005.
 
Latin America
There is a dichotomy in the way Latin American populations contemplate the growing economic power of China. Brazil and Peru view it positively overall, and increasingly so in Brazil where negative perceptions have declined significantly since 2005 (26%, down 9 points). Conversely, Mexicans are closer to their partners from NAFTA attitudinally, with their views also shifting dramatically since 2005. Positive views of China’s increasing economic influence have halved between 2005 and 2011 (27%, down from 54%) while concerns about it have increased by 25 points over the same period (43%), leaving Mexico leaning largely negative in 2011.
The same split between South America and Mexico is observed when people are asked to rate the fairness of China, the US, and the EU as trade partners. Peruvians and Chileans do not see any big difference between them and similar majorities of between 50 and 60 per cent think the big three are fair in the way they handle trade. In contrast, in Mexico a plurality of 41 per cent sees China as an unfair trade partner. Mexicans are divided when considering the fairness of the US (34% fair vs. 30% unfair) but are largely positive towards the EU (46% vs. 20%).
Except for Brazilians, Latin Americans’ views converge to say that their country’s economic relations with China will become important ten years from now. Chileans, Mexicans, and Peruvians also think that the US and the EU will become more important economic partners than they are now. In Mexico, the US is expected to remain the most important economic partner with an average importance score of 6.68 on a 0–10 scale, slightly ahead of the EU (6.51) and well ahead of China (5.65). In Peru, economic relations with China are expected to become as important as those with the US (average score of 7.45 for China vs. 7.43 for the US). Interestingly, and although they see the Chinese growing economic influence positively, Brazilians think that their country’s economic relations with China will become less important over the next decade. However, they think the same way about the US and the EU. The average importance score for China is down from 7.21 to 6.58, and the US and the EU are expected to remain more important economic partners than China (average score of 7.20 and 6.65, respectively). On average, in Latin America as a whole region, the US is expected to remain the most important economic partner (average score of 7.28); ahead of the EU and China (average scores of 6.94 and 6.88, respectively).
Peru is the only Latin American country that is favourably contemplating the possibility of China becoming more powerful militarily (41% positive, 28% negative). Mexicans are more sceptical about this now than they were in 2005. Whereas their views were only slightly negative back then (33% positive, 37% negative), they now are now strongly unfavourable, with a majority of 53 per cent having negative perceptions (up 16 points) and only 17 per cent leaning the opposite way (down 16 points). Brazilian views remained quite stable and largely negative overall (29% positive, 46% negative).
 
Europe
Views of China’s increasing economic power in Europe are contrasting and have changed in several countries since 2005. Three countries (Spain, the United Kingdom, and Turkey) have positive views about it, while three lean negative (Italy, Germany, and France) and two are divided (Portugal and Russia).
In France, views shifted from being largely positive to leaning negative. While almost six in ten were positive about the increasing power of China economically in 2005, now only 42 per cent (down from 59%) feel that way, while negative perceptions jumped from 31 to 53 per cent over the period. Views also worsened in Germany. Divided in 2005 (42% positive, 44% negative), German opinion is now largely unfavourable, following a 14-point drop in positive views (28%) combined with a 9-point increase in negative views (53%). Somewhat negative in 2005 (41% positive, 47% negative), Italians’ negative feelings have become much stronger in 2011 (38% positive, 57% negative). Russians, who had favourable views towards China’s economic power in 2005, have become divided in 2011 (38% positive, down 5 points; 37% negative, up 4 points).
Views of China’s growing economic influence have become strongly warmer in two countries. Spanish perceptions have reversed since 2005 and Spaniards now appear to be the most upbeat in Europe, with a majority leaning positive (52%, up 21 points) and 37 per cent being unfavourable (down 10 points). The Turks’ views also shifted as one in two now feels positive in 2011 (50%, up 24 points) and 31 per cent feel negative (down 11 points). In the United Kingdom, Britons remain favourable (52%) towards China’s growing influence on the economic stage despite an increase in negative views (41%, up 7 points).
When it comes to considering how fair China is in handling its trade with partners worldwide, European views are much less diverse. Except Russia, all other countries have strong pluralities (Portugal and the United Kingdom) or majorities who think that China is an unfair trading partner. Turks, Germans, and French are the most critical with 62, 59, and 56 per cent who say that China is unfair, respectively. Russia stands alone with a strong plurality of 48 per cent who think China is handling its trade fairly. On average, across all countries, China is considered as the least fair with an average fairness score of 4.21, and ranks behind the US (average score of 4.96) and the EU (average score of 5.82).
Despite the negative feelings regarding China’s perceived unfairness as a trade partner, all European populations who said it was unfair think that the economic relations with China will become even more important in the next ten years. On average, among all European countries, China is expected to move slightly ahead of the US in terms of importance of its economic relations in a decade (importance average score up from 6.23 to 6.85 for China and up from 6.66 and 6.84 for the US). Not surprisingly, the EU is expected to remain the most important economic partner for European countries (average score up from 7.17 to 7.43). However two countries offer a particularly interesting picture. The British think that China will become the top economic partner for their country in ten years (average score of 7.11), ahead of the US (6.95, but currently ranked 1^st) and the EU itself (6.78). In Germany, public opinion expects a decline in the importance of economic relations with the US (down from 7.55 to 7.45), at the same time as an increase in the case of China (up from 6.65 to 7.45) which is expected to become as important as the US.
The possibility of seeing China becoming more powerful militarily is considered very negatively among European populations. All countries except Turkey have strong majorities with negative feelings and those have worsened in several of them since 2005. Germans (88%, highest proportion in the survey equally with Japan), Italians (81%, up 7 points), French (71%, up 7 points), and Russians (69%, up 10 points) are particularly concerned by China’s possible growing military power. Spanish views markedly softened as unfavourable perceptions dropped 19 points and positive feelings increased by 25 points, but the country still leans negatively overall (34% vs. 57%). In Turkey, views have reversed since 2005 and opinion is now divided on the topic (37% positive, up 20 points; 37% negative, down 12 points).
 
 
Africa
All African countries view China’s increasing economic power positively. Nigerians and Kenyans are the most enthusiastic among all countries surveyed, with around four in five feeling positive (82% in Nigeria, 77% in Kenya). Ghana is also in the upper echelon, with 62 per cent of Ghanaians with positive views. The proportion is lower in Egypt but there is still a majority favourable towards China’s growing economic influence (54%). The percentage is similar in South Africa (52%), although the population there is less upbeat than it was in 2005—the only African country that was also surveyed back then—as a 12-point decrease has occurred since.
 
The consensus prevails among African countries as well with regard to how they consider China’s fairness in the way it trades with its partners. Nigeria’s ratings of China’s fairness are the highest among all surveyed countries (88%), followed by Kenya (81%). In fact, outside the African continent, only Pakistan (81%) and Indonesia (79%) have higher proportions than all African countries (China excluded). The picture is quite similar with the US, as large proportions (among the highest in the survey) of Nigerians, Kenyans, Ghanaians, and South Africans all consider the Americans are fair partners to deal with. The exception is Egypt where more think the US is unfair (50%) than fair (39%). On average, in the continent, China is considered the fairest partner, with an average fairness score of 7.02 on a 0–10 scale, ahead of the US (6.61) and the EU (6.52).
Africans also share the view that their own country’s economic relations with China are likely to become more important ten years from now. Except Ghanaians, they all think their current economic relations are already more important with China than with the US and the EU and they anticipate this will remain the case in ten years. On average in the continent, and on a 0–10 scale, the average importance score of economic relations with China in a decade is 7.87, ahead of the US (7.59) and the EU (7.19). However, in Ghana, the US is expected to remain a more important partner than China (average scores of 7.34 and 6.96, respectively), but the latter is expected to move ahead of the EU in terms of importance (average score of 6.83). The EU ranks third in all countries in terms of its importance as an economic partner, except in Egypt where the US ranks third both now and in ten years.
The picture is more contrasted when it comes to considering China’s increasing military power. While the Sub-Saharan countries are among the very few countries surveyed along with Pakistan, India, and Peru (China excluded) to have pluralities favourable to China becoming more powerful militarily, Egyptians feel negative about it (22% vs. 42%). South Africa, where the question was also asked in 2005, is divided (32% vs. 35%), as it was in 2005.
 
 
Asia
In Asia, the increasing influence of China economically is seen quite positively overall. Four countries lean largely favourable and three, all part of the OECD, are divided (Japan, South Korea, and Australia).
Pakistanis feel the most positive about China’s growing economic influence (74% positive), and strong positive majorities are also found among Indonesians and Filipinos (63% and 61%, respectively) whose opinions remained stable since 2005. But a closer look at the picture shows the situation has deteriorated elsewhere. Although a majority of 53 per cent of Indians is favourable towards more Chinese influence economically, this is significantly less than in 2005 when almost seven in ten had positive views (68%).
In South Korea and Australia, majorities with favourable views were found in 2005 (54% and 52%, respectively), but the opinions have since shifted to being divided in 2011 (49% vs. 49% in South Korea, 48% vs. 46% in Australia). In Japan, a 7-point increase in negative perceptions has also resulted in opinion shifting from leaning positive (35% vs. 23%) to being divided (31% vs. 30%). A common feature of the three countries is a rise in negative views, while positive ratings remained relatively stable or slightly decreased only in the case of South Korea.
The same split between OECD and non-OECD countries is observed regarding how fair China is viewed in trading with other countries. Members of the OECD think China is unfair. A plurality of 36 per cent of Australians leans this way but proportions are much higher in South Korea (58%), and in Japan (70%, highest percentage in the survey). Conversely, populations in Pakistan and Indonesia praise China for dealing fairly in trade and give it the highest ratings in the survey after Nigeria and Kenya (81% and 79%, respectively). India (54%) and the Philippines (44%) also consider China a fair partner, but in lesser proportions. It is also noteworthy that OECD countries such as Japan and Australia are also critical to the US when considering how fair they are with their trading partners. Australians are divided (32% vs. 33%) and Japanese lean somewhat negative (26% vs. 31%), and both of them consider the EU fairer (37% vs. 19% in Australia; 25% vs. 16% in Japan). China is somewhat positive towards the US (42% vs. 37%) but more so towards the EU (48% vs. 29%).
Not surprisingly, China is seen as the most important economic partner in Asia, with an average importance score of 7.18 across all Asian countries, and it is expected to be even more so in ten years (average score of 7.40). The US ranks second in the region but its importance is anticipated to decrease slightly, down from 7.01 to 6.90. The importance of the EU is expected to grow but to remain behind the US and China (average score of 6.58). At the country level, China is expected to become even more important in terms of economic relations over the next decade in Australia (average score up from 7.51 to 7.93), the Philippines (up from 7.15 to 7.45), and South Korea (up from 7.62 to 8.02). South Koreans thus think China will become their country’s most important trade partner, ahead of the US, whose importance is anticipated to decrease (average score down from 8.00 to 7.82). Filipinos, Indonesians, and Indians think that the US will remain the top economic partner for their country in ten years (despite a decrease in terms of importance in India). Chinese respondents anticipate that their trade relations with the EU will remain the most important (average score of 6.46, barely down from 6.48), ahead of those with the US, which are expected to become slightly less important (average score down 6.42 to 6.34).
The possibility of seeing China’s military influence growing is seen differently across Asian countries. Pro-NATO or OECD countries are very concerned about it and have very high proportions with negative views. This has even worsened since 2005 in Japan (88%, up 10 points and highest proportion with Germany), and South Korea (76%, up 18 points). Australians have barely softened their views, with positive ratings increasing six points to 20 per cent, but over three in four still remain negative (76%). In the Philippines, views have also sharply deteriorated, with negative perceptions going up from 46 to 63 per cent, while favourable opinions dropped 16 points to 29 per cent. As a result, the country’s position has shifted from being divided in 2005 to leaning largely negative in 2011.
Conversely, views have markedly warmed in Indonesia, with negative perceptions of China’s increased military power dropping 21 points down to 34 per cent while positive views somewhat increased (32%, up 5 points), and Indonesians are now divided overall. Pakistan and India have the most positive feelings about increased Chinese military power in the whole survey. More than six in ten Pakistanis give favourable ratings (61%, highest percentage). A plurality of 44 per cent do the same in India, but this has dropped from 56 per cent in 2005.

Methodology

In total 28,619 citizens in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Egypt, France, Germany, Ghana, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Kenya, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Peru, the Philippines, Portugal, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States were interviewed face-to-face or by telephone between December 2, 2010 and February 4, 2011. Some questions were asked of half of samples. Countries were rated by half samples in all countries polled. Polling was conducted for BBC World Service by GlobeScan and its research partners in each country.
In Brazil, China, Egypt, Indonesia, Mexico, the Philippines, Portugal, and Turkey urban samples were used. The margin of error per country ranges from +/- 2.8 to 4.9 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

¹ In Brazil the survey was conducted in Belo Horizonte, Brasilia, Curitiba, Goiânia, Porto Alegre, Recife, Rio de Janeiro, Salvador, and São Paulo, representing 18 per cent of the national population.
² In China the survey was conducted in Beijing, Beiliu, Chengdu, Dujiangyan, Fenyang, Fuyang, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Manzhouli, Quanzhou, Qujing, Shanghai, Shenyang, Shuangcheng, Wuhan, Xi’an, Xining, and Zhengzhou, representing 45 per cent of the national adult population.
³ In Egypt the survey was conducted in Alexandria, Cairo, Giza, and Shubra El-Kheima, representing 24 per cent of the national population.
⁴ In Indonesia the survey was conducted in Bandung, Jakarta, Makassar, Medan, and Surabaya, representing 27 per cent of the national adult population.
⁵ In Mexico the survey was conducted in Baja California, Chihuahua, Guanajuato, Guerrero, Hidalgo, Jalisco, Mexico City, Michoacán, Morelos, Nuevo León, Oaxaca, Puebla, Sonora, Tamaulipas, Veracruz, and Yucatán, representing 40 per cent of the national adult population and 80 per cent of the residential telephone landlines.
⁶ In the Philippines the survey was conducted in the National Capital Region, representing 27 per cent of the urban adult population.
⁷ In Portugal the survey was conducted in Almada, Amadora, Beja, Braga, Castelo Branco, Évora, Faro, Guarda, Leiria, Lisbon, Loures, Porto, Santarém, Setúbal, Vila Nova de Famalicão, Vila Nova de Gaia, and Viseu, representing 25 per cent of the national adult population.
⁸ In Turkey the survey was conducted in Adana, Ankara, Antalya, Bursa, Diyarbakir, Erzurum, Istanbul, Izmir, Konya, Samsun, and Zonguldak, representing 56 per cent of the national adult population.

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