With figures released this week indicating that the Eurozone has tipped back into recession, companies across the continent are desperately seeking to maintain their market share and revenues, even as household budgets slide. In August, Unilever’s head of European operations, Jan Zijderveld said “poverty is returning to Europe” and that companies were going to have to learn to adjust to that reality. GlobeScan’s most recent public attitudes tracking certainly shows that, while economic concern may have retreated from its 2008 … “Opportunity among the bleak times for business in Europe?”
When German Chancellor Angela Merkel travelled to Britain this week, she brought a plea for greater British engagement with Europe. Since Prime Minister David Cameron vetoed moves towards a new European treaty last December, the Eurozone has agreed greater steps toward political and economic union as it battles to save its currency, even as British parliamentarians have called for a reduction in the EU’s budget—illustrating the increasingly Euroskeptic tone of political discourse in the UK. In such an environment, commentators … “Brixit—Is Britain a Mid-Atlantic Island, or a Part of Europe?”
As Hurricane Sandy slammed into the eastern seaboard of North America, the US presidential contest was entering its home stretch. The material damage caused cannot be denied, but analysts have also occupied themselves with two further questions: most immediately, how might Sandy affect the election and, more widely, does the explanation for Sandy’s unusual strength lie in climate change? Looking back at trends in GlobeScan’s public opinion polling after Katrina provides us with some interesting reflections on both of these … “Sandy: In the shadow of Katrina”
Despite the recent strong signs that boom years may be coming to an end, the past two decades have seen unprecedented economic growth in many nations in the developing world. Previous GlobeScan polling has seen this reflected in generally higher levels of economic optimism among citizens, greater trust in institutions, and a much more upbeat assessment of the performance of the corporate world. It is something of a surprise therefore that GlobeScan’s most recent global polling also shows that people … “More than two in three globally believe humanity faces its greatest ever crisis, as economic fears abound”
Sustainability seems to have been largely absent from the conversation in the 2012 US Presidential campaign. Apart from a couple of fleeting moments when the spotlight has fallen on the issue—an argument between the candidates over energy policy in the second debate, and a joke about the President promising to stem the tide of the rising oceans by Mitt Romney in his convention speech—the American public could be forgiven for thinking that neither candidate cares much about sustainability issues. However, … “President Obama Viewed as the Candidate Most Likely to Fast-Forward Sustainability”
In a slowing global economy, many nations are aiming to out-compete their rivals and offer a more attractive environment for global companies to operate in. But GlobeScan’s most recent tracking illustrates that there may be cultural factors for countries to contend with. Citizens sometimes perceive national and global companies in a different light. Trust in global and national business is certainly correlated—if a country’s citizens trust global businesses, they are also likely to trust its own national companies. However, in … “Global vs National Business: Interpreting the Gap in Trust”
Twenty years after the collapse of the USSR, Russia continues to present a difficult business environment, with an economy dominated by an elite circle close to the seat of political power. For foreign companies, navigating the nuances of the Russian system can prove particularly challenging, and GlobeScan’s latest polling demonstrates a large degree of social alienation, which could make conditions for foreign investment yet more difficult. In 2012, more Russians feel that economic wellbeing has improved over the past 20 … “Russia: Disenfranchisement, distrust—and opportunity”
Even though many commentators have suggested that China’s slowing economy poses risks to its political and social stability, GlobeScan’s polling shows that the Chinese public retains a much higher level of trust in their national government than they do in other social institutions. The degree to which the public trusts different institutions in China may reflect the country’s insular, government-dominated past. China’s sustained economic success over the past two decades is probably a major factor in the public’s continuing faith … “Trusted and powerful: the Chinese remain faithful to their government”
In a week when business leaders in the UK met with the Catholic Archbishop of Westminster to discuss ways to resurrect the reputation of the corporate sector, GlobeScan’s most recent global polling shows that while religious groups generally enjoy higher levels of trust that they will operate in the best interests of society than other institutions, in many countries there is greater skepticism about the impact they can have through their actions. While only scientists and NGO score higher on … “Religious groups highly trusted, but greater public skepticism over their impact on society”
US President Barack Obama may be enjoying a bounce in the polls this week after last week’s Democratic convention, but GlobeScan’s contextual polling suggests that he faces a much more challenging environment in terms of public attitudes than his predecessor George Bush did when seeking re-election in 2004.
Going into the 2004 election, 72 percent of Americans trusted their federal government to act in the best interests of society, and 60 percent believed that their children and grandchildren would have a better quality of life than they did. Yet in 2012, only 47 percent have such faith in their national government, while the proportion of those who believe that their children and grandchildren will have a better quality of life has fallen to 32 per cent.
In 2004 the dominant issue was foreign policy, and the incumbent was in a secure position. Twice as many Americans cited terrorism as a serious concern as cited the economy, and 64% viewed military force as an effective way to combat it—effectively endorsing the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. 67% saw America’s role in the world as positive, legitimizing Bush’s unilateralism.
President Obama enjoys no such positive consensus on the current issue of the day—economics. Despite improvement over the past three years, nearly half of Americans (44%) still feel themselves to be worse off than a year ago, and a similar proportion (48%) are pessimistic about their leaders making economic progress over the next twenty years (48%). Indeed, while in 2002 79 percent of Americans felt that America was doing a good job of reducing international terror—indicative of a strong alignment between the government’s actions and society’s wishes—today Americans are more likely to blame the government for their economic problems than they are to blame private enterprise (19% say they government is most to blame, as opposed to just 2% who blame managers and companies).
Despite the favourable environment for President Bush in 2004, he won only narrowly, with 51% of the popular vote. With another closely fought election looming, the social optimism that was present in 2004 is missing. While positive economic and social data are not necessarily required for re-election, President Obama will have to hope the American public blame their woes on his predecessor if he hopes to clinch a victory in this very different backdrop.
Finding from the GlobeScan Radar, Wave 2, 2012
For more information on this finding, please contact Sam Mountford (Read Bio)